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Daily Market Patrol

Market Patrol 4th December 2024

Every exit is an entry somewhere else.

Tom Stoppard
Indicative Selling Rates
against MUR
USD
04 Dec 2024
  • AUD
  • 30.92
  • 0.6540
  • BWP
  • 3.52
  • 0.0746
  • CAD
  • 33.90
  • 1.3944
  • CNY
  • 6.70
  • 7.0539
  • DKK
  • 6.76
  • 6.9875
  • EUR
  • 49.95
  • 1.0568
  • HKD
  • 6.16
  • 7.6701
  • INR
  • 0.57
  • 83.3093
  • JPY
  • 32.32
  • 146.2673
  • KES
  • 37.07
  • 127.5068
  • NZD
  • 27.95
  • 0.5913
  • NOK
  • 4.37
  • 10.8209
  • SGD
  • 35.72
  • 1.3234
  • ZAR
  • 2.71
  • 17.4745
  • SEK
  • 4.36
  • 10.8526
  • CHF
  • 53.68
  • 1.1356
  • GBP
  • 60.28
  • 1.2751
  • USD
  • 47.27
  • 1.0000
  • AED
  • 13.17
  • 3.5892
The Aussie Dollar cascaded amid a softer domestic GDP reading.
Fundamental News

EUR/USD
The Euro hopped to $1.0505 as European Central Bank policy marker, Robert Holzmann, stated that a rate cut of not more than 25 basis points would be conceivable in December. 

GBP/USD
The Pound Sterling ran slowly to  $1.2667 unfazed by a strong U.S. JOLTS Job Openings data.

USD/JPY
The Japanese Yen enhanced  to 149.96 against the greenback on increased safe-haven demand following South Korea's brief martial law implementation yesterday. 

AUD/USD
The Australian dollar nosedived to $0.6425 after softer than expected Gross Domestic Product (GDP)  data spurred increased bets that the Reserve Bank could  cut interest rates earlier in 2025. 

USD/CAD
The Canadian dollar weakened  to 1.4063 against its U.S. counterpart even though there was an uptick in oil prices.

USD/ZAR
The South African rand meandered  at 18.13 against the U.S. dollar after South Africa Domestic Product (GDP) published a lower than expected reading. 

USD/MUR
The dollar-rupee fell  to 47.29 (Selling) this morning.

Fundamental & Technical Data
Economic Indicators-Local Time

17.15 USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change

18.45 USD S&P Global Services PMI

19.00 USD ISM Non- Manufacturing PMI

19.30 USD Crude Oil Inventories

22.45 Fed Chair Powell Speaks

 

 

 

Central Bank Interest Rates
Last Change
New Meeting
Federal Bank of U.S
4.75%
18-Sep-2024
18-Dec-2024
European Central Bank
3.25%
16-Oct-2024
11-Dec-2024
Bank of England
4.75%
01-Aug-2024
18-Dec-2024
Bank of Japan
0.25%
31-Jul-2024
31-Oct-2024
Reserve Bank of Australia
4.35%
07-Nov-2023
10-Dec-2024
S.Africa Reserve Bank
7.75%
21-Nov-2024
-
Reserve Bank of India
6.50%
04-Oct-2023
06-Dec-2024
Bank of Mauritius
4.00%
20-Sep-2024
-
Looking for Markets correlation?
Market Correlation is a measure, statistical or observational, that gives a positive or negative link between the pricing of multiple currencies.

Bulls & Bears Levels
Resistance and Support
Levels
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/ZAR
R3
1.0590
1.2765
151.93
18.39
R2
1.0562
1.2733
151.08
18.33
R1
1.0536
1.2702
150.34
18.22
PP
1.0508
1.2670
149.49
18.15
S1
1.0482
1.2639
148.75
18.04
S2
1.0454
1.2607
147.90
17.97
S3
1.0428
1.2576
147.16
17.86
Technical Analysis - Forex Charts
EUR/USD Outlook- Likely to take a breather before a big jump forward
Chart updated on 08.05.2023

As expected, the EUR/USD  has been on a steep uptrend since September 2022 on hawkish ECB.

Elliott wave pattern

Daily Chart

A Clear impulsive 5-wave structure from a low of $0.9534 to a high of $ 1.1035 in February 2023

 Possible Expanding Diagonal in wave c of wave b of a flat correction

Forecast

Short term

 We expect a corrective setback  in wave C in the coming month

1st  target 1.1.0670  Wave a =Wave C of a flat correction

2nd Target 1.0530-  Wave a =127.2% of wave C of a flat correction

Long term

Once the pullback is completed, we might see the EUR/USD jumping out of the block to $1.1560, followed by $1.2000 by year-end of 2023

USD/MUR Outlook Bearish turn ahead !
Chart posted on 08.05.2023

News

The USD/MUR suddenly burst to a new high at 47.48 in March, driven by FX liquidity concerns, before BOM stepped in to smooth the excessive volatility and injected USD 30 mio on the domestic market.

The USD/MUR fell sharply to 45.40 in the wake of three interventions of the Bank of Mauritius from March 2023 to date.

Elliott wave pattern- Weekly Chart

Double zig-zag upward correction in wave  W-X-Y, since 2000 completed!

Bearish turn ahead!

Clear 5-wave structure in wave 5 of wave C of wave (Y)

Over the last four years, the USD/MUR surged by 42% from a low of 32.90 in wave 4 to reach an all-time high of 47.47 on 16th of March 2023, before falling back to 45.40 in an impulsive decline from Mid-March to late April 2023

Forecast-  USD/MUR on the brink of a downturn in Q2-Q4 of 2023

 On the  weekly USD/MUR chart, It seems that the pair may have completed a five-wave upward rally in sub-wave (v) of Wave 5 of Wave C of Wave Y with a peak of 47.47 on the 16th of March

Our Short term target is for a downward trend towards 44.00 followed by 43.00 in  December 2023

EUR/MUR- A continuation of the uptrend!
Chart posted on 08.05.2023

Forecast

 

 EUR/MUR- On the weekly chart, the EUR/MUR may extend its rally in the short term above the high of 51.05 printed in July 2021.

 From a technical perspective, on a break of the previous high at 51.05, the pair may find resistance at 52.00, followed by 52.50 by June 2023.

However, we expected the pair to pare some of its gains to 48.50 by September 2023 before a resumption of the uptrend to 53.40-54.50 by December 2023

The Pound is expected to experience a short-term rally before trending lower in wave C of a Zig-Zag corrective pattern
Chart posted on 12.08.2024
  • The British Pound has appreciated by approximately 0.9% this year, positioning it among the top-performing major currencies against the U.S. dollar. Nonetheless, the third quarter of 2024 has proven to be topsy-turvy for the Pound. After reaching a peak of $1.3043 in July following the Labour Party's election victory, it experienced a significant decline in August after the Bank of England's decision to reduce interest rates by a quarter-point to 5%.

 

Technical Outlook-One leg higher before more sell-off!

Pound in wave C of a corrective Setback.

  • From an Elliott Wave perspective, the daily chart reveals that the GBP/USD could still be stuck in a Zig-Zag corrective (A-B-C) setback, with wave C underway.

Forecast

The Pound is expected to experience a short-term rally before trending lower in wave C of a Zig-Zag corrective pattern.

  • 1st  target 1.2900- 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the previous decline from 1.3043
  • 2nd Target 1.2950/95- 78.6%-88.6% Fibonacci. Retracement.
  • 3rd  Target 1.1800- Previous wave 4 of a lesser degree
  • 4th Target 1.1750- 50% Fibonacci retracement of wave A/1
The Rand, an emerging market’s hero.
Chart posted on 24.09.2024

News

During the third week of September 2024, central banks, including the SARB, and the Fed decided to cut their interest rates. As of today, the interest rates in the U.S. and in South Africa are 4.5%, and 8% respectively. 

Technical Outlook

Forecast

We anticipate the USD/ZAR to gradually decrease to 17.0, 16.39 which is the 161.8% expansion of wave (C) for the last zigzag Z.

 

Yen bull, taking a breather before resuming its rally! 137.00
Chart posted on 12.08.2024

News


The Japanese currency has strengthened by 9.49% in the current quarter, partially recovering from its earlier losses this year. This was supported by interventions from Japanese authorities, an unexpected interest rate increase by the Bank of Japan to
0.25% from 0 0.1% on July 31, and worries about a slowing U.S. economy.

 Technical News

After a significant shift from the 38-year low of 162.05 that hit just at the start of July, the Japanese Yen reversed some of its gains from a seven-month high of 141.675 per dollar last week. This change occurred after an influential BOJ official downplayed the chances of a near-term rate hike in the wake of the BOJ interest rate decision on July 31, which led to bailouts of carry trades on the Yen.

Technical Outlook- Updated

Flat Correction in Wave C of Wave IV

Forecast

On the weekly chart, from an Elliott wave perspective, the USD/JPY is forming a Flat Correction (a-b-c) with wave b finished at 162.05 and wave C still in progress. The pair may continue to rise in the short term before returning to the bearish trend.

1st Target 151.91-154.30 – 50% & 61.8%  Fibonacci Retracement from 162.05 to 141.675

2nd Target 137.00 – Wave c= Wave  a of the flat correction

USDCAD - Medium term view
Chart posted on 27.08.2024

**Technical Analysis**

 

From an Elliott Wave perspective, the pattern that the USD/CAD pair unveiled since October 2022, starting at 1.3977, may be identified as a combination W-X -Y. Where wave W is a zigzag, wave X is a zigzag, and wave Y is expected be an expanding or running flat, where we are targeting wave C of the flat to mature at a minimum of 1.3218 and complete wave Y. In the case of a regular flat, it could slide further toward 1.3026.

 

A combination consists of two or more corrective waves, and their occurrence is simply to extend a sideways action.

 

When drilling down on wave C of wave Y in a shorter time frame, it appears that the first wave (i) of a five-wave impulsive pattern (i)(ii)(iii)(iv)(v) is about to reach maturity around 1.3445. Following this impulsive move, we might expect a corrective pattern, labelled as wave (ii), which, according to Elliott Wave guidelines, should retrace to a minimum of wave (iv) of a lesser degree, around 1.3738. It should be noted that a corrective pattern can have various retracement levels, so we should wait for the pattern to unfold before providing further insights into the appropriate retracement level. After the completion of pullback wave (ii), the trend is expected to continue downward toward the target level to complete the 5-wave impulsive pattern of wave C of the flat.

 

However, a break above 1.3945 would invalidate the entire structure.

 

 

USD/JPY – Taking a step back to take two steps forward
Chart posted on 26.09.2024

Technical Analysis

Wave (A) has stopped at the end of the previous wave 4 of one lesser degree, labeled wave (4), and has achieved a 61.8% retracement of the previous wave of one higher degree, wave ((5)), which indicates that the pair will now be moving in the opposite direction.

 

A primary target for the USD/JPY pair is the end of the previous wave 4 of a lesser degree, labeled wave 4 – within wave (A), which stands at 149.40. An alternative target for the pair would be a 61.8% retracement of wave (A), which would take USD/JPY to 153.40.

 

In Elliot Wave terms, an impulsive wave ((5)) has completed and it is expected to be followed by a corrective wave. We postulate the impulsive decline to the previous wave 4 of one lesser degree to be the wave A of a potential zigzag. We thus postulate the current move up to be the wave B of the potential zigzag.

 

On the other hand, if the pair declines further from its current level of 144.25 and passes below the 139.58 level, it could indicate that wave 5 of wave (A) has not yet completed, and that wave (A) may extend its retracement of wave ((5)) to 137.40 or 134.65, which are the 70.7% and the 78.6% retracement levels of wave ((5)) respectively.

Chart posted on 01.01.0001
Weekly Market Update by Reshma Peerun Rajwani
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Disclaimer
Please note that the information published is purely indicative. It is based on technical data from sources which the Bank verily believes to be authentic, though its timeliness or accuracy cannot be warranted or guaranteed. AfrAsia Bank Ltd issues no invitation to anyone to rely on this bulletin and neither we nor our information providers shall be in no way whatsoever, liable for any errors or inaccuracies, regardless of cause, or the lack of timeliness, or for any delay or interruption in the transmission thereof to the user. The indicative rates and other market information are subject to changes at the Bank's discretion. Whilst every effort is made to ensure the information is accurate, you should confirm the latest situation with the Bank prior to making any decisions.