Most of the important things in the world have been accomplished by people who have kept on trying when there seemed to be no hope at all.
USD
EURUSD
The Euro remained in known territory around $1.0700 on Wednesday as the Fed held interest rates, as widely expected. Fed Chair Powell pretty much ruled out a rate hike as the next move but offered no hint as to the timing of rate cuts, noting that the fight against inflation was taking longer than expected.
GBPUSD
The Pound Sterling gained traction above $1.2500 post-FOMC meeting despite a sharp drop in Britain's inflation. Financial markets are now only fully pricing in a first BoE rate cut in September, with the chances of a second move by the end of the year seen as little more than 50-50.
USDJPY
The Japanese Yen suddenly surged to 153.00, from 157.58, against the greenback in early Asia morning during low-liquidity trading on another suspected round of Japanese intervention. However, the bid for dollars returned so swiftly and strongly that by mid-morning in Tokyo, the dollar/yen was back to 156, suggesting that some speculators - rather than being rinsed out - are simply taking the opportunity to reload bets against the Yen at more favourable prices.
AUDUSD
The Australian dollar extended its gains on Thursday to $0.6535 despite weaker-than-expected Trade Balance and Building Permits data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
USDCAD
The Canadian dollar benefitted from an overall dovish tone from the U.S. Federal Reserve to rise to a high of 1.3703 against its U.S. counterpart yesterday, brushing aside weaker Canadian Manufacturing PMI and lower Oil prices.
USDZAR
South Africa's rand was helped to a high of 18.54 against the USD as positive market sentiment favoured risk-sensitive currencies.
USDMUR
The dollar-rupee lost 4 cents to trade at 46.82(selling) this morning.
10:30 CHF Consumer Price Index
10:30 CHF Retail Sales
11:55 EUR German HCOB Manufacturing PMI
15:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts
16:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
16:30 USD Nonfarm Productivity PREL
16:45 CAD BoC's Governor Macklem speech
18:00 USD Factory Orders
As expected, the EUR/USD has been on a steep uptrend since September 2022 on hawkish ECB.
Elliott wave pattern
Daily Chart
A Clear impulsive 5-wave structure from a low of $0.9534 to a high of $ 1.1035 in February 2023
Possible Expanding Diagonal in wave c of wave b of a flat correction
Forecast
Short term
We expect a corrective setback in wave C in the coming month
1st target 1.1.0670 Wave a =Wave C of a flat correction
2nd Target 1.0530- Wave a =127.2% of wave C of a flat correction
Long term
Once the pullback is completed, we might see the EUR/USD jumping out of the block to $1.1560, followed by $1.2000 by year-end of 2023
News
The USD/MUR suddenly burst to a new high at 47.48 in March, driven by FX liquidity concerns, before BOM stepped in to smooth the excessive volatility and injected USD 30 mio on the domestic market.
The USD/MUR fell sharply to 45.40 in the wake of three interventions of the Bank of Mauritius from March 2023 to date.
Elliott wave pattern- Weekly Chart
Double zig-zag upward correction in wave W-X-Y, since 2000 completed!
Bearish turn ahead!
Clear 5-wave structure in wave 5 of wave C of wave (Y)
Over the last four years, the USD/MUR surged by 42% from a low of 32.90 in wave 4 to reach an all-time high of 47.47 on 16th of March 2023, before falling back to 45.40 in an impulsive decline from Mid-March to late April 2023
Forecast- USD/MUR on the brink of a downturn in Q2-Q4 of 2023
On the weekly USD/MUR chart, It seems that the pair may have completed a five-wave upward rally in sub-wave (v) of Wave 5 of Wave C of Wave Y with a peak of 47.47 on the 16th of March
Our Short term target is for a downward trend towards 44.00 followed by 43.00 in December 2023
Forecast
EUR/MUR- On the weekly chart, the EUR/MUR may extend its rally in the short term above the high of 51.05 printed in July 2021.
From a technical perspective, on a break of the previous high at 51.05, the pair may find resistance at 52.00, followed by 52.50 by June 2023.
However, we expected the pair to pare some of its gains to 48.50 by September 2023 before a resumption of the uptrend to 53.40-54.50 by December 2023
The Pound Sterling is experiencing a lot of selling pressure against the U.S. dollar due to the ongoing risk aversion theme. The Bank of England's aggressive monetary policy tightening is also causing concern for the U.K. economy, as it may not pause the policy tightening spell in time.
Additionally, Britain's Consumer Price Index (CPI) is currently the highest among G7 economies, which may require more rate hikes in the future. However, UK Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt has reassured the public that the administration is working to bring inflation down to almost 5% by year-end.
From a technical standpoint, the GBP/USD is still trapped in a Triple Zig-Zag Correction on the Hourly Chart. This could potentially lead to the pound reaching new lows in the coming sessions/days.
The downside targets are as follows:
- Target 1 @ 1.2487
- Target 2 @1.2418
- Target 3 @ 1,2330
On the flip side, if the pound were to move back to $1.2641 and 1.2710, it would invalidate the bearish count!
News
The Rand has experienced a 10.3% decrease against the U.S. dollar in Q3 of 2023. This is due to a less optimistic economic outlook, which has been impacted by the Eskom power supply issues in South Africa.
Technical Outlook
A Diagonal pattern in wave C of wave (Y) is still underway.
Looking at the Elliott wave pattern, the USD/ZAR Daily Chart reveals a Diagonal pattern in wave C of wave (Y) is still in progress. The overall pattern from January 2011 to October 2023 appears to be forming a Clear 5-wave motive
structure (Diagonal) in wave C of wave (Y).
Forecast
We anticipate the USD/ZAR to gradually increase to a maximum of 21.26 in the upcoming months before reversing in the first quarter of 2024.
1st target 19.92- high of May 2023
2nd Target 20.65- upper trendline connecting wave 1-3
3rd Target 21.26- Maximum length of Wave 5 of wave C
