Failure will never overtake me if my determination to succeed is strong enough.
USD
EURUSD
The Euro roared to $1.0995 on downbeat U.S. Producer Price Index data of 0.1% versus estimates of 0.2% boosted Federal Reserve rate cuts prospects.
GBPUSD
The Pound Sterling dropped to $1.2823 after UK inflation data fell to 2.2% increasing bets of interest rate cuts by Bank of England.
USDJPY
The Japanese Yen enhanced to 146.96 against the greenback amid rising expectation of the Bank of Japan's hiking rates again in 2024.
AUDUSD
The Australian dollar jumped to $0.6630 ahead of the much awaiting U.S inflation data due today.
USDCAD
The Canadian Dollar rose to 1.3718 against its U.S. counterpart despite lower Oil prices.
USDZAR
The South African rand hoisted to 18.11 against the U.S. dollar regardless of a disappointing south Africa mining data.
USDMUR
The dollar-rupee tumbled by 15cents to 46.67(selling) this morning following U.S Dollar weakness.
13:00 EUR Gross Domestic Product
16:30 USD Core CPI.
18.30 USD Crude Oil Inventories
As expected, the EUR/USD has been on a steep uptrend since September 2022 on hawkish ECB.
Elliott wave pattern
Daily Chart
A Clear impulsive 5-wave structure from a low of $0.9534 to a high of $ 1.1035 in February 2023
Possible Expanding Diagonal in wave c of wave b of a flat correction
Forecast
Short term
We expect a corrective setback in wave C in the coming month
1st target 1.1.0670 Wave a =Wave C of a flat correction
2nd Target 1.0530- Wave a =127.2% of wave C of a flat correction
Long term
Once the pullback is completed, we might see the EUR/USD jumping out of the block to $1.1560, followed by $1.2000 by year-end of 2023
News
The USD/MUR suddenly burst to a new high at 47.48 in March, driven by FX liquidity concerns, before BOM stepped in to smooth the excessive volatility and injected USD 30 mio on the domestic market.
The USD/MUR fell sharply to 45.40 in the wake of three interventions of the Bank of Mauritius from March 2023 to date.
Elliott wave pattern- Weekly Chart
Double zig-zag upward correction in wave W-X-Y, since 2000 completed!
Bearish turn ahead!
Clear 5-wave structure in wave 5 of wave C of wave (Y)
Over the last four years, the USD/MUR surged by 42% from a low of 32.90 in wave 4 to reach an all-time high of 47.47 on 16th of March 2023, before falling back to 45.40 in an impulsive decline from Mid-March to late April 2023
Forecast- USD/MUR on the brink of a downturn in Q2-Q4 of 2023
On the weekly USD/MUR chart, It seems that the pair may have completed a five-wave upward rally in sub-wave (v) of Wave 5 of Wave C of Wave Y with a peak of 47.47 on the 16th of March
Our Short term target is for a downward trend towards 44.00 followed by 43.00 in December 2023
Forecast
EUR/MUR- On the weekly chart, the EUR/MUR may extend its rally in the short term above the high of 51.05 printed in July 2021.
From a technical perspective, on a break of the previous high at 51.05, the pair may find resistance at 52.00, followed by 52.50 by June 2023.
However, we expected the pair to pare some of its gains to 48.50 by September 2023 before a resumption of the uptrend to 53.40-54.50 by December 2023
- The British Pound has appreciated by approximately 0.9% this year, positioning it among the top-performing major currencies against the U.S. dollar. Nonetheless, the third quarter of 2024 has proven to be topsy-turvy for the Pound. After reaching a peak of $1.3043 in July following the Labour Party's election victory, it experienced a significant decline in August after the Bank of England's decision to reduce interest rates by a quarter-point to 5%.
Technical Outlook-One leg higher before more sell-off!
Pound in wave C of a corrective Setback.
- From an Elliott Wave perspective, the daily chart reveals that the GBP/USD could still be stuck in a Zig-Zag corrective (A-B-C) setback, with wave C underway.
Forecast
The Pound is expected to experience a short-term rally before trending lower in wave C of a Zig-Zag corrective pattern.
- 1st target 1.2900- 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the previous decline from 1.3043
- 2nd Target 1.2950/95- 78.6%-88.6% Fibonacci. Retracement.
- 3rd Target 1.1800- Previous wave 4 of a lesser degree
- 4th Target 1.1750- 50% Fibonacci retracement of wave A/1
News
The convergence of USD/ZAR technicals, an improving South African domestic backdrop, and the prospect of a May or June U.S. rate cut might lift the rand to new 2024 highs and drop USD/ZAR below 18.2700, the low from January 2024.
Technical Outlook
Forecast
We anticipate the USD/ZAR to gradually decrease to 18.15 in the upcoming months and extend losses to 17.20 until June 2024.
1st target 18.15- low of Dec 2023
2nd Target 17.20- Wave Y= wave W
