In order to succeed, we must first believe that we can.
USD
EURUSD
The Euro regained $1.0940 ahead of U.S. Producer Price Index data due later today.
GBPUSD
The Pound Sterling jittered around $1.2795 as U.K. average earnings jumped and unemployment rate decreased after the Bank of England cut rates at its last monetary policy meeting on August 1st.
USDJPY
The Japanese Yen lost ground to 147.70 against the greenback as traders eased back on a deeper rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
AUDUSD
The Australian dollar firmed at $0.6590 despite softer Australian wage growth as the pair continued to draw support from the RBA's hawkish tilt.
USDCAD
The Canadian Dollar took a breather yesterday but remained strong at 1.3738 against its U.S. counterpart supported by higher Oil prices amid geopolitical tensions.
USDZAR
The South African rand firmed to 18.24 against the U.S. dollar on Monday, erasing all of its losses incurred on the previous Monday during the global rout, ahead of domestic data on mining, unemployment and retail sales due for release this week.
USDMUR
The dollar-rupee edged down 3 cents to 46.82(selling) this morning.
13:00 EUR German ZEW Survey – Current Situation
13:00 EUR German ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment
13:00 EUR Eurozone ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment
16:30 USD Producer Price Index
16:30 USD Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy
21:15 USD Fed's Bostic speech
As expected, the EUR/USD has been on a steep uptrend since September 2022 on hawkish ECB.
Elliott wave pattern
Daily Chart
A Clear impulsive 5-wave structure from a low of $0.9534 to a high of $ 1.1035 in February 2023
Possible Expanding Diagonal in wave c of wave b of a flat correction
Forecast
Short term
We expect a corrective setback in wave C in the coming month
1st target 1.1.0670 Wave a =Wave C of a flat correction
2nd Target 1.0530- Wave a =127.2% of wave C of a flat correction
Long term
Once the pullback is completed, we might see the EUR/USD jumping out of the block to $1.1560, followed by $1.2000 by year-end of 2023
News
The USD/MUR suddenly burst to a new high at 47.48 in March, driven by FX liquidity concerns, before BOM stepped in to smooth the excessive volatility and injected USD 30 mio on the domestic market.
The USD/MUR fell sharply to 45.40 in the wake of three interventions of the Bank of Mauritius from March 2023 to date.
Elliott wave pattern- Weekly Chart
Double zig-zag upward correction in wave W-X-Y, since 2000 completed!
Bearish turn ahead!
Clear 5-wave structure in wave 5 of wave C of wave (Y)
Over the last four years, the USD/MUR surged by 42% from a low of 32.90 in wave 4 to reach an all-time high of 47.47 on 16th of March 2023, before falling back to 45.40 in an impulsive decline from Mid-March to late April 2023
Forecast- USD/MUR on the brink of a downturn in Q2-Q4 of 2023
On the weekly USD/MUR chart, It seems that the pair may have completed a five-wave upward rally in sub-wave (v) of Wave 5 of Wave C of Wave Y with a peak of 47.47 on the 16th of March
Our Short term target is for a downward trend towards 44.00 followed by 43.00 in December 2023
Forecast
EUR/MUR- On the weekly chart, the EUR/MUR may extend its rally in the short term above the high of 51.05 printed in July 2021.
From a technical perspective, on a break of the previous high at 51.05, the pair may find resistance at 52.00, followed by 52.50 by June 2023.
However, we expected the pair to pare some of its gains to 48.50 by September 2023 before a resumption of the uptrend to 53.40-54.50 by December 2023
- The British Pound has appreciated by approximately 0.9% this year, positioning it among the top-performing major currencies against the U.S. dollar. Nonetheless, the third quarter of 2024 has proven to be topsy-turvy for the Pound. After reaching a peak of $1.3043 in July following the Labour Party's election victory, it experienced a significant decline in August after the Bank of England's decision to reduce interest rates by a quarter-point to 5%.
Technical Outlook-One leg higher before more sell-off!
Pound in wave C of a corrective Setback.
- From an Elliott Wave perspective, the daily chart reveals that the GBP/USD could still be stuck in a Zig-Zag corrective (A-B-C) setback, with wave C underway.
Forecast
The Pound is expected to experience a short-term rally before trending lower in wave C of a Zig-Zag corrective pattern.
- 1st target 1.2900- 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the previous decline from 1.3043
- 2nd Target 1.2950/95- 78.6%-88.6% Fibonacci. Retracement.
- 3rd Target 1.1800- Previous wave 4 of a lesser degree
- 4th Target 1.1750- 50% Fibonacci retracement of wave A/1
News
The convergence of USD/ZAR technicals, an improving South African domestic backdrop, and the prospect of a May or June U.S. rate cut might lift the rand to new 2024 highs and drop USD/ZAR below 18.2700, the low from January 2024.
Technical Outlook
Forecast
We anticipate the USD/ZAR to gradually decrease to 18.15 in the upcoming months and extend losses to 17.20 until June 2024.
1st target 18.15- low of Dec 2023
2nd Target 17.20- Wave Y= wave W
