“Problems are not stop signs, they are guidelines .”
USD
EUR/USD
The Single currency treaded water at $1.1043 post U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, which added 253K jobs during April, surpassing initial estimates of 180k jobs.
GBP/USD
The Cable surged to a one-year high at 1.2650 following a positive reading of U.K Construction Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and ahead of the Bank of England rate decision this Thursday.
USD/JPY
The Japanese yen reversed some of its losses to 134.75 after a better-than-expected Japan Services Purchasing Managers' Index data this morning.
AUD/USD
The Aussie dollar drove firmly to $0.6774 on multiple headwinds for the greenback in the wake of mounting fears of U.S. banking jitters and uncertainty over the U.S. debt ceiling crisis.
USD/CAD
The Loonie enhanced significantly to 1.3372, boosted by Canada's upbeat job data landing at 41.4K versus the estimates of 20K.
USD/ZAR
The South African rand fell to 18.39 against the greenback after stronger-than-expected US Jobs data signalled that the Federal Reserve could continue its rate hike cycle.
USD/MUR
The dollar-rupee stabilized at 45.70(Selling)
As expected, the EUR/USD has been on a steep uptrend since September 2022 on hawkish ECB.
Elliott wave pattern
Daily Chart
A Clear impulsive 5-wave structure from a low of $0.9534 to a high of $ 1.1035 in February 2023
Possible Expanding Diagonal in wave c of wave b of a flat correction
Forecast
Short term
We expect a corrective setback in wave C in the coming month
1st target 1.1.0670 Wave a =Wave C of a flat correction
2nd Target 1.0530- Wave a =127.2% of wave C of a flat correction
Long term
Once the pullback is completed, we might see the EUR/USD jumping out of the block to $1.1560, followed by $1.2000 by year-end of 2023
News
The USD/MUR suddenly burst to a new high at 47.48 in March, driven by FX liquidity concerns, before BOM stepped in to smooth the excessive volatility and injected USD 30 mio on the domestic market.
The USD/MUR fell sharply to 45.40 in the wake of three interventions of the Bank of Mauritius from March 2023 to date.
Elliott wave pattern- Weekly Chart
Double zig-zag upward correction in wave W-X-Y, since 2000 completed!
Bearish turn ahead!
Clear 5-wave structure in wave 5 of wave C of wave (Y)
Over the last four years, the USD/MUR surged by 42% from a low of 32.90 in wave 4 to reach an all-time high of 47.47 on 16th of March 2023, before falling back to 45.40 in an impulsive decline from Mid-March to late April 2023
Forecast- USD/MUR on the brink of a downturn in Q2-Q4 of 2023
On the weekly USD/MUR chart, It seems that the pair may have completed a five-wave upward rally in sub-wave (v) of Wave 5 of Wave C of Wave Y with a peak of 47.47 on the 16th of March
Our Short term target is for a downward trend towards 44.00 followed by 43.00 in December 2023
Forecast
EUR/MUR- On the weekly chart, the EUR/MUR may extend its rally in the short term above the high of 51.05 printed in July 2021.
From a technical perspective, on a break of the previous high at 51.05, the pair may find resistance at 52.00, followed by 52.50 by June 2023.
However, we expected the pair to pare some of its gains to 48.50 by September 2023 before a resumption of the uptrend to 53.40-54.50 by December 2023
