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Treasury

Daily Market Patrol

Market Patrol 3rd August 2023

Well done is better than well said.

Benjamin Franklin
Indicative Selling Rates
against MUR
USD
20 Dec 2024
  • AUD
  • 30.10
  • 0.6322
  • BWP
  • 3.54
  • 0.0745
  • CAD
  • 33.29
  • 1.4301
  • CNY
  • 6.72
  • 7.0815
  • DKK
  • 6.71
  • 7.0904
  • EUR
  • 49.58
  • 1.0414
  • HKD
  • 6.22
  • 7.6568
  • INR
  • 0.57
  • 83.7507
  • JPY
  • 31.08
  • 153.1735
  • KES
  • 37.41
  • 127.2757
  • NZD
  • 27.03
  • 0.5677
  • NOK
  • 4.24
  • 11.2216
  • SGD
  • 35.54
  • 1.3396
  • ZAR
  • 2.68
  • 17.7715
  • SEK
  • 4.37
  • 10.8960
  • CHF
  • 53.34
  • 1.1203
  • GBP
  • 59.72
  • 1.2543
  • USD
  • 47.61
  • 1.0000
  • AED
  • 13.26
  • 3.5895
The Cable remained on the backfoot ahead of BoE rate decision.
Fundamental News

EUR/USD
The sharp drop in the Euro to a low of $1.0918 took many traders aback yesterday ahead of a flurry of potential market-moving economic data releases later today.

GBP/USD
The pound sterling fell to $1.2680 on market’s anxiety ahead of the Bank of England monetary policy announcements.

USD/JPY
The Bank of Japan intervention in the bond market provided momentary support for the Japanese yen, but the Asian currency soon retreated to 143.89 against the greenback before stabilizing around 143.50.

AUD/USD
The Aussie started the month of August on the back foot, losing nearly 200 pips in the first two days of the month against the U.S. dollar to trade at $0.6540, as risk sentiment sours.

USD/CAD
The Canadian dollar made way for its U.S. counterpart, falling to 1.3340 as Oil prices give back some of their recent gains.

USD/ZAR
The South African rand slumped further to 18.50 against the greenback as risk-off sentiment increased on concerns about global economic growth.

USD/MUR
The dollar-rupee gained 5 cents to trade 45.70(selling) on the local FX market.

Fundamental & Technical Data
Economic Indicators-Local Time

10:30 CHF Consumer Price Index

12:00 EUR Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI

13:00 EUR Eurozone Producer Price Index

15:00 GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision

15:30 GBP BoE's Governor Bailey speech

16:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims

17:45 USD S&P Global Composite PMI

18:00 USD ISM Services PMI

Central Bank Interest Rates
Last Change
New Meeting
Federal Bank of U.S
5.50%
26-Jul-2023
20-Sep-2023
European Central Bank
3.5%
15-Jun-2023
27-Jul-2023
Bank of England
5%
22-Jun-2023
03-Aug-2023
Bank of Japan
-0.10%
16-Jun-2023
28-Jul-2023
Reserve Bank of Australia
4.10%
04-Jul-2023
01-Aug-2023
S.Africa Reserve Bank
8.25%
25-May-2023
20-Jul-2023
Reserve Bank of India
6.5%
08-Jun-2023
10-Aug-2023
Bank of Mauritius
4.50%
15-Jun-2023
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Looking for Markets correlation?
Market Correlation is a measure, statistical or observational, that gives a positive or negative link between the pricing of multiple currencies.

Bulls & Bears Levels
Resistance and Support
Levels
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/ZAR
R3
1.1101
1.2909
145.02
18.93
R2
1.1061
1.2857
144.24
18.75
R1
1.0999
1.2784
143.79
18.60
PP
1.0959
1.2732
143.01
18.43
S1
1.0897
1.2659
142.56
18.28
S2
1.0857
1.2607
141.78
18.10
S3
1.0795
1.2534
141.33
17.95
Technical Analysis - Forex Charts
EUR/USD Outlook- Likely to take a breather before a big jump forward
Chart updated on 08.05.2023

As expected, the EUR/USD  has been on a steep uptrend since September 2022 on hawkish ECB.

Elliott wave pattern

Daily Chart

A Clear impulsive 5-wave structure from a low of $0.9534 to a high of $ 1.1035 in February 2023

 Possible Expanding Diagonal in wave c of wave b of a flat correction

Forecast

Short term

 We expect a corrective setback  in wave C in the coming month

1st  target 1.1.0670  Wave a =Wave C of a flat correction

2nd Target 1.0530-  Wave a =127.2% of wave C of a flat correction

Long term

Once the pullback is completed, we might see the EUR/USD jumping out of the block to $1.1560, followed by $1.2000 by year-end of 2023

USD/MUR Outlook Bearish turn ahead !
Chart posted on 08.05.2023

News

The USD/MUR suddenly burst to a new high at 47.48 in March, driven by FX liquidity concerns, before BOM stepped in to smooth the excessive volatility and injected USD 30 mio on the domestic market.

The USD/MUR fell sharply to 45.40 in the wake of three interventions of the Bank of Mauritius from March 2023 to date.

Elliott wave pattern- Weekly Chart

Double zig-zag upward correction in wave  W-X-Y, since 2000 completed!

Bearish turn ahead!

Clear 5-wave structure in wave 5 of wave C of wave (Y)

Over the last four years, the USD/MUR surged by 42% from a low of 32.90 in wave 4 to reach an all-time high of 47.47 on 16th of March 2023, before falling back to 45.40 in an impulsive decline from Mid-March to late April 2023

Forecast-  USD/MUR on the brink of a downturn in Q2-Q4 of 2023

 On the  weekly USD/MUR chart, It seems that the pair may have completed a five-wave upward rally in sub-wave (v) of Wave 5 of Wave C of Wave Y with a peak of 47.47 on the 16th of March

Our Short term target is for a downward trend towards 44.00 followed by 43.00 in  December 2023

EUR/MUR- A continuation of the uptrend!
Chart posted on 08.05.2023

Forecast

 EUR/MUR- On the weekly chart, the EUR/MUR may extend its rally in the short term above the high of 51.05 printed in July 2021.

 From a technical perspective, on a break of the previous high at 51.05, the pair may find resistance at 52.00, followed by 52.50 by June 2023.

However, we expected the pair to pare some of its gains to 48.50 by September 2023 before a resumption of the uptrend to 53.40-54.50 by December 2023

GBP/USD could feel the pressure of a corrective pullback in the short term
Chart posted on 22.05.2023

The Pound has bagged about 5.7% against the U.S. dollar this year to reach a 1-year high of $1.2682 on the 10th of May 2023 and is up some 17% from lows hit $1.0386 in the wake of September’s disastrous mini-budget.

From an Elliott Wave perspective, the GBP/USD remains in a long-term uptrend but could feel the pain of a corrective setback in the upcoming weeks. A break below the bullish trend channel at $1.2500 would open the door for further decline near $1.2345 (previous wave 4 of a lesser degree), followed by $1.2337 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement from a high of 1.2682), and lastly at $1.1900 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement). On the upside, stiff resistance has formed at 1.2645 and 1.2680 could be seen as the next bullish target.

Weekly Market Update by Reshma Peerun Rajwani
Speak to our team
  • Allan Juste
    Head - Forex And Derivatives
    +230 5251 4855
  • Reshma Peerun Rajwani
    Head – Treasury Sales
    +230 403 5500
Disclaimer
Please note that the information published is purely indicative. It is based on technical data from sources which the Bank verily believes to be authentic, though its timeliness or accuracy cannot be warranted or guaranteed. AfrAsia Bank Ltd issues no invitation to anyone to rely on this bulletin and neither we nor our information providers shall be in no way whatsoever, liable for any errors or inaccuracies, regardless of cause, or the lack of timeliness, or for any delay or interruption in the transmission thereof to the user. The indicative rates and other market information are subject to changes at the Bank's discretion. Whilst every effort is made to ensure the information is accurate, you should confirm the latest situation with the Bank prior to making any decisions.