Quality is not an act, it is a habit.
USD
EUR/USD
The Single currency bounced back to 1.0808 against the U.S. dollar this morning after dropping to its weakest level in 10 weeks on Friday as the market digested hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell and ECB President Lagarde at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
GBP/USD
The Cable pair regained 1.2600 in a quiet Asian session post-Jackson Hole but remained heavy despite rate differentials favouring GBP as Gilts yields remained higher than U.S. treasuries.
USD/JPY
The Japanese Yen was humbled back above 146.00 against the greenback as the divergence in monetary policy between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan boosted the dollar, but the possibility of a BoJ intervention could limit further Yen depreciation.
AUD/USD
The Australian dollar got a much needed lift to 0.6435 against the USD on Monday, bolstered by upbeat Australian retail sales data and China's decision to halve its stamp duty on stock trading in the latest attempt to boost the struggling market.
USD/CAD
The Canadian dollar retreated to 1.3600 against its U.S. counterpart on softer Oil prices as investors await the US GDP, core PCE, and Nonfarm Payrolls due later this week.
USD/ZAR
The South African Rand pared some losses to reach 18.53 against the U.S. dollar despite the Johannesburg Stock Exchange blue chip Top 40 index ending last week in the red, down about 0.7%.
USD/MUR
The dollar-rupee traded 5 cents lower at 46.05 (selling) this morning.
00:00 GBP Summer Bank Holiday (All Day)
16:00 EUR German Buba President Nagel speech
As expected, the EUR/USD has been on a steep uptrend since September 2022 on hawkish ECB.
Elliott wave pattern
Daily Chart
A Clear impulsive 5-wave structure from a low of $0.9534 to a high of $ 1.1035 in February 2023
Possible Expanding Diagonal in wave c of wave b of a flat correction
Forecast
Short term
We expect a corrective setback in wave C in the coming month
1st target 1.1.0670 Wave a =Wave C of a flat correction
2nd Target 1.0530- Wave a =127.2% of wave C of a flat correction
Long term
Once the pullback is completed, we might see the EUR/USD jumping out of the block to $1.1560, followed by $1.2000 by year-end of 2023
News
The USD/MUR suddenly burst to a new high at 47.48 in March, driven by FX liquidity concerns, before BOM stepped in to smooth the excessive volatility and injected USD 30 mio on the domestic market.
The USD/MUR fell sharply to 45.40 in the wake of three interventions of the Bank of Mauritius from March 2023 to date.
Elliott wave pattern- Weekly Chart
Double zig-zag upward correction in wave W-X-Y, since 2000 completed!
Bearish turn ahead!
Clear 5-wave structure in wave 5 of wave C of wave (Y)
Over the last four years, the USD/MUR surged by 42% from a low of 32.90 in wave 4 to reach an all-time high of 47.47 on 16th of March 2023, before falling back to 45.40 in an impulsive decline from Mid-March to late April 2023
Forecast- USD/MUR on the brink of a downturn in Q2-Q4 of 2023
On the weekly USD/MUR chart, It seems that the pair may have completed a five-wave upward rally in sub-wave (v) of Wave 5 of Wave C of Wave Y with a peak of 47.47 on the 16th of March
Our Short term target is for a downward trend towards 44.00 followed by 43.00 in December 2023
Forecast
EUR/MUR- On the weekly chart, the EUR/MUR may extend its rally in the short term above the high of 51.05 printed in July 2021.
From a technical perspective, on a break of the previous high at 51.05, the pair may find resistance at 52.00, followed by 52.50 by June 2023.
However, we expected the pair to pare some of its gains to 48.50 by September 2023 before a resumption of the uptrend to 53.40-54.50 by December 2023
The Pound has bagged about 5.7% against the U.S. dollar this year to reach a 1-year high of $1.2682 on the 10th of May 2023 and is up some 17% from lows hit $1.0386 in the wake of September’s disastrous mini-budget.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, the GBP/USD remains in a long-term uptrend but could feel the pain of a corrective setback in the upcoming weeks. A break below the bullish trend channel at $1.2500 would open the door for further decline near $1.2345 (previous wave 4 of a lesser degree), followed by $1.2337 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement from a high of 1.2682), and lastly at $1.1900 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement). On the upside, stiff resistance has formed at 1.2645 and 1.2680 could be seen as the next bullish target.
