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Daily Market Patrol

Market Patrol 27th September 2023

While we teach, we learn.

Seneca
Indicative Selling Rates
against MUR
USD
24 Dec 2024
  • AUD
  • 30.10
  • 0.6335
  • BWP
  • 3.49
  • 0.0736
  • CAD
  • 33.31
  • 1.4261
  • CNY
  • 6.71
  • 7.0813
  • DKK
  • 6.72
  • 7.0708
  • EUR
  • 49.63
  • 1.0447
  • HKD
  • 6.21
  • 7.6559
  • INR
  • 0.57
  • 83.8245
  • JPY
  • 31.07
  • 152.9184
  • KES
  • 37.33
  • 127.2721
  • NZD
  • 27.07
  • 0.5698
  • NOK
  • 4.27
  • 11.1323
  • SGD
  • 35.52
  • 1.3377
  • ZAR
  • 2.65
  • 17.9149
  • SEK
  • 4.36
  • 10.9000
  • CHF
  • 53.17
  • 1.1192
  • GBP
  • 59.87
  • 1.2601
  • USD
  • 47.51
  • 1.0000
  • AED
  • 13.24
  • 3.5892
The USDMUR tumbled to 44.50 in the wake of the fourth intervention by the Bank of Mauritius in September.
Fundamental News

EURUSD
The Euro hit a fresh six-month low near 1.0550 in the Asian session as the U.S. dollar stayed firm across the board amid risk aversion.

GBPUSD
The pound sterling tumbled for the third consecutive day to 1.2136 versus the greenback ahead of a slew of economic data releases scheduled for the rest of the week, starting with U.S. Durable Goods Orders later today.

USDJPY
The Japanese Yen oscillated in a narrow range around the 149.00 mark against the U.S. dollar as the Bank of Japan policy meeting minutes drew little attention.

AUDUSD
The Australian dollar failed to capitalize on hot Aussie Consumer Price Index data as the argument for keeping the current policy unchanged appeared more compelling.

CADUSD
The Canadian dollar weakened to 1.3520 against its strong U.S. counterpart as recovering Oil prices were of little help to the commodity-linked currency.

USDZAR
The South African rand weakened to 19.07 on the back of a surge in U.S. Treasury yields as investors turned away from riskier assets.

USDMUR
The dollar-rupee traded at 44.95 (selling) this morning following the intervention by the Bank of Mauritius on the local FX market.

 

Fundamental & Technical Data
Economic Indicators-Local Time

10:00 EUR Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey

12:00 CHF ZEW Survey – Expectations

16:30 USD Durable Goods Orders

17:00 CHF SNB Quarterly Bulletin

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Central Bank Interest Rates
Last Change
New Meeting
Federal Bank of U.S
5.50%
26-Jul-2023
20-Sep-2023
European Central Bank
4.00%
14-Sep-2023
26-Oct-2023
Bank of England
5.25%
03-Aug-2023
21-Sep-2023
Bank of Japan
-0.10%
28-Jan-2016
22-Sep-2023
Reserve Bank of Australia
4.10%
01-Aug-2023
05-Sep-2023
S.Africa Reserve Bank
8.25%
03-Aug-2023
21-Sep-2023
Reserve Bank of India
6.5%
10-Aug-2023
04-Oct-2023
Bank of Mauritius
4.50%
15-Jun-2023
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Looking for Markets correlation?
Market Correlation is a measure, statistical or observational, that gives a positive or negative link between the pricing of multiple currencies.

Bulls & Bears Levels
Resistance and Support
Levels
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/ZAR
R3
1.0647
1.2262
149.75
19.51
R2
1.0628
1.2239
149.47
19.30
R1
1.0600
1.2198
149.27
19.18
PP
1.0581
1.2175
148.99
18.97
S1
1.0553
1.2134
148.79
18.86
S2
1.0534
1.2111
148.51
18.65
S3
1.0506
1.2070
148.31
18.54
Technical Analysis - Forex Charts
EUR/USD Outlook- Likely to take a breather before a big jump forward
Chart updated on 08.05.2023

As expected, the EUR/USD  has been on a steep uptrend since September 2022 on hawkish ECB.

Elliott wave pattern

Daily Chart

A Clear impulsive 5-wave structure from a low of $0.9534 to a high of $ 1.1035 in February 2023

 Possible Expanding Diagonal in wave c of wave b of a flat correction

Forecast

Short term

 We expect a corrective setback  in wave C in the coming month

1st  target 1.1.0670  Wave a =Wave C of a flat correction

2nd Target 1.0530-  Wave a =127.2% of wave C of a flat correction

Long term

Once the pullback is completed, we might see the EUR/USD jumping out of the block to $1.1560, followed by $1.2000 by year-end of 2023

USD/MUR Outlook Bearish turn ahead !
Chart posted on 08.05.2023

News

The USD/MUR suddenly burst to a new high at 47.48 in March, driven by FX liquidity concerns, before BOM stepped in to smooth the excessive volatility and injected USD 30 mio on the domestic market.

The USD/MUR fell sharply to 45.40 in the wake of three interventions of the Bank of Mauritius from March 2023 to date.

Elliott wave pattern- Weekly Chart

Double zig-zag upward correction in wave  W-X-Y, since 2000 completed!

Bearish turn ahead!

Clear 5-wave structure in wave 5 of wave C of wave (Y)

Over the last four years, the USD/MUR surged by 42% from a low of 32.90 in wave 4 to reach an all-time high of 47.47 on 16th of March 2023, before falling back to 45.40 in an impulsive decline from Mid-March to late April 2023

Forecast-  USD/MUR on the brink of a downturn in Q2-Q4 of 2023

 On the  weekly USD/MUR chart, It seems that the pair may have completed a five-wave upward rally in sub-wave (v) of Wave 5 of Wave C of Wave Y with a peak of 47.47 on the 16th of March

Our Short term target is for a downward trend towards 44.00 followed by 43.00 in  December 2023

EUR/MUR- A continuation of the uptrend!
Chart posted on 08.05.2023

Forecast

 EUR/MUR- On the weekly chart, the EUR/MUR may extend its rally in the short term above the high of 51.05 printed in July 2021.

 From a technical perspective, on a break of the previous high at 51.05, the pair may find resistance at 52.00, followed by 52.50 by June 2023.

However, we expected the pair to pare some of its gains to 48.50 by September 2023 before a resumption of the uptrend to 53.40-54.50 by December 2023

GBP/USD feeling the pressure of a corrective pullback in the short term
Chart posted on 07.09.2023

The Pound Sterling is experiencing a lot of selling pressure against the U.S. dollar due to the ongoing risk aversion theme. The Bank of England's aggressive monetary policy tightening is also causing concern for the U.K. economy, as it may not pause the policy tightening spell in time.

Additionally, Britain's Consumer Price Index (CPI) is currently the highest among G7 economies, which may require more rate hikes in the future. However, UK Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt has reassured the public that the administration is working to bring inflation down to almost 5% by year-end.

From a technical standpoint, the GBP/USD is still trapped in a Triple Zig-Zag Correction on the Hourly Chart. This could potentially lead to the pound reaching new lows in the coming sessions/days.

The downside targets are as follows:

  1. Target 1 @ 1.2487
  2. Target 2 @1.2418
  3. Target 3 @ 1,2330

On the flip side, if the pound were to move back to $1.2641 and 1.2710, it would invalidate the bearish count!

Weekly Market Update by Reshma Peerun Rajwani
Speak to our team
  • Allan Juste
    Head - Forex And Derivatives
    +230 5251 4855
  • Reshma Peerun Rajwani
    Head – Treasury Sales
    +230 403 5500
Disclaimer
Please note that the information published is purely indicative. It is based on technical data from sources which the Bank verily believes to be authentic, though its timeliness or accuracy cannot be warranted or guaranteed. AfrAsia Bank Ltd issues no invitation to anyone to rely on this bulletin and neither we nor our information providers shall be in no way whatsoever, liable for any errors or inaccuracies, regardless of cause, or the lack of timeliness, or for any delay or interruption in the transmission thereof to the user. The indicative rates and other market information are subject to changes at the Bank's discretion. Whilst every effort is made to ensure the information is accurate, you should confirm the latest situation with the Bank prior to making any decisions.