We aim above the mark to hit the mark.
USD
EURUSD
The Euro held its ground against the U.S. dollar around 1.0650, underpinned by data from Germany and the Euro area that showed business activity in the private sector contracted at a softer pace in early August than in July.
GBPUSD
The pound sterling struggled to gather momentum and traded in a narrow range near 1.2250 as investors digested the Bank of England's decision to keep interest rates on hold. Much focus remains on U.K. GDP data due at the end of this week for fresh direction.
USDJPY
The Japanese Yen weakened to its lowest level since November 2022 during the Asian session but stayed around 148.50 as Yen bears turned cautious amid intervention fears.
AUDUSD
The Aussie pair moved South to the low-0.6400s ahead of monthly Australian inflation figures due mid-week.
CADUSD
The Canadian dollar trod water around 1.3470 against the greenback after mixed Canadian Retail Sales and U.S. PMI figures.
USDZAR
The South African Rand recovered from last week's decline to trade at 18.77 this morning despite the country's unfavourable domestic backdrop.
USDMUR
The dollar-rupee traded flat at 45.10 (selling) this morning.
12:00 EUR German IFO – Business Climate
17:00 EUR ECB's President Lagarde speech
As expected, the EUR/USD has been on a steep uptrend since September 2022 on hawkish ECB.
Elliott wave pattern
Daily Chart
A Clear impulsive 5-wave structure from a low of $0.9534 to a high of $ 1.1035 in February 2023
Possible Expanding Diagonal in wave c of wave b of a flat correction
Forecast
Short term
We expect a corrective setback in wave C in the coming month
1st target 1.1.0670 Wave a =Wave C of a flat correction
2nd Target 1.0530- Wave a =127.2% of wave C of a flat correction
Long term
Once the pullback is completed, we might see the EUR/USD jumping out of the block to $1.1560, followed by $1.2000 by year-end of 2023
News
The USD/MUR suddenly burst to a new high at 47.48 in March, driven by FX liquidity concerns, before BOM stepped in to smooth the excessive volatility and injected USD 30 mio on the domestic market.
The USD/MUR fell sharply to 45.40 in the wake of three interventions of the Bank of Mauritius from March 2023 to date.
Elliott wave pattern- Weekly Chart
Double zig-zag upward correction in wave W-X-Y, since 2000 completed!
Bearish turn ahead!
Clear 5-wave structure in wave 5 of wave C of wave (Y)
Over the last four years, the USD/MUR surged by 42% from a low of 32.90 in wave 4 to reach an all-time high of 47.47 on 16th of March 2023, before falling back to 45.40 in an impulsive decline from Mid-March to late April 2023
Forecast- USD/MUR on the brink of a downturn in Q2-Q4 of 2023
On the weekly USD/MUR chart, It seems that the pair may have completed a five-wave upward rally in sub-wave (v) of Wave 5 of Wave C of Wave Y with a peak of 47.47 on the 16th of March
Our Short term target is for a downward trend towards 44.00 followed by 43.00 in December 2023
Forecast
EUR/MUR- On the weekly chart, the EUR/MUR may extend its rally in the short term above the high of 51.05 printed in July 2021.
From a technical perspective, on a break of the previous high at 51.05, the pair may find resistance at 52.00, followed by 52.50 by June 2023.
However, we expected the pair to pare some of its gains to 48.50 by September 2023 before a resumption of the uptrend to 53.40-54.50 by December 2023
The Pound Sterling is experiencing a lot of selling pressure against the U.S. dollar due to the ongoing risk aversion theme. The Bank of England's aggressive monetary policy tightening is also causing concern for the U.K. economy, as it may not pause the policy tightening spell in time.
Additionally, Britain's Consumer Price Index (CPI) is currently the highest among G7 economies, which may require more rate hikes in the future. However, UK Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt has reassured the public that the administration is working to bring inflation down to almost 5% by year-end.
From a technical standpoint, the GBP/USD is still trapped in a Triple Zig-Zag Correction on the Hourly Chart. This could potentially lead to the pound reaching new lows in the coming sessions/days.
The downside targets are as follows:
- Target 1 @ 1.2487
- Target 2 @1.2418
- Target 3 @ 1,2330
On the flip side, if the pound were to move back to $1.2641 and 1.2710, it would invalidate the bearish count!
