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USD
EURUSD
The Euro remained subdued around 1.0650 versus the greenback on upbeat U.S. Treasury yields and employment data.
GBPUSD
The pound sterling set a multi-month low at 1.2234 against the U.S. dollar following the Bank of England's surprise pause in rate hikes yesterday.
USDJPY
The Japanese Yen climbed to 147.31 against the USD yesterday but completely reversed course to 148.30 after the Bank of Japan left its monetary policy settings unchanged this morning.
AUDUSD
The Aussie pair climbed back above 0.6400 during the Asian session but struggled to find more upside traction amid a mixed data dump for both the Australian and New Zealand dollars.
CADUSD
The Canadian dollar advanced to 1.3470 against its U.S. counterpart as Oil prices resumed their uptrend after Russia announced a temporary ban on Oil exports amid signs of a shortage in its domestic market.
USDZAR
The South African Rand saw some volatility after the SARB left the repo rate unchanged at 8.25% on Thursday. The Rand opened flat at 18.86 versus the greenback this morning.
USDMUR
The dollar-rupee stayed unchanged at 45.10 (selling) today.
11:30 EUR German HCOB Composite PMI PREL
12:00 EUR Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI PREL
12:30 GBP S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI PREL
16:30 CAD Retail Sales
17:45 USD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI PREL
17:45 USD S&P Global Services PMI PREL
As expected, the EUR/USD has been on a steep uptrend since September 2022 on hawkish ECB.
Elliott wave pattern
Daily Chart
A Clear impulsive 5-wave structure from a low of $0.9534 to a high of $ 1.1035 in February 2023
Possible Expanding Diagonal in wave c of wave b of a flat correction
Forecast
Short term
We expect a corrective setback in wave C in the coming month
1st target 1.1.0670 Wave a =Wave C of a flat correction
2nd Target 1.0530- Wave a =127.2% of wave C of a flat correction
Long term
Once the pullback is completed, we might see the EUR/USD jumping out of the block to $1.1560, followed by $1.2000 by year-end of 2023
News
The USD/MUR suddenly burst to a new high at 47.48 in March, driven by FX liquidity concerns, before BOM stepped in to smooth the excessive volatility and injected USD 30 mio on the domestic market.
The USD/MUR fell sharply to 45.40 in the wake of three interventions of the Bank of Mauritius from March 2023 to date.
Elliott wave pattern- Weekly Chart
Double zig-zag upward correction in wave W-X-Y, since 2000 completed!
Bearish turn ahead!
Clear 5-wave structure in wave 5 of wave C of wave (Y)
Over the last four years, the USD/MUR surged by 42% from a low of 32.90 in wave 4 to reach an all-time high of 47.47 on 16th of March 2023, before falling back to 45.40 in an impulsive decline from Mid-March to late April 2023
Forecast- USD/MUR on the brink of a downturn in Q2-Q4 of 2023
On the weekly USD/MUR chart, It seems that the pair may have completed a five-wave upward rally in sub-wave (v) of Wave 5 of Wave C of Wave Y with a peak of 47.47 on the 16th of March
Our Short term target is for a downward trend towards 44.00 followed by 43.00 in December 2023
Forecast
EUR/MUR- On the weekly chart, the EUR/MUR may extend its rally in the short term above the high of 51.05 printed in July 2021.
From a technical perspective, on a break of the previous high at 51.05, the pair may find resistance at 52.00, followed by 52.50 by June 2023.
However, we expected the pair to pare some of its gains to 48.50 by September 2023 before a resumption of the uptrend to 53.40-54.50 by December 2023
The Pound Sterling is experiencing a lot of selling pressure against the U.S. dollar due to the ongoing risk aversion theme. The Bank of England's aggressive monetary policy tightening is also causing concern for the U.K. economy, as it may not pause the policy tightening spell in time.
Additionally, Britain's Consumer Price Index (CPI) is currently the highest among G7 economies, which may require more rate hikes in the future. However, UK Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt has reassured the public that the administration is working to bring inflation down to almost 5% by year-end.
From a technical standpoint, the GBP/USD is still trapped in a Triple Zig-Zag Correction on the Hourly Chart. This could potentially lead to the pound reaching new lows in the coming sessions/days.
The downside targets are as follows:
- Target 1 @ 1.2487
- Target 2 @1.2418
- Target 3 @ 1,2330
On the flip side, if the pound were to move back to $1.2641 and 1.2710, it would invalidate the bearish count!
