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USD
EUR/USD
The Single currency crumbled to $1.0763 after another round of solid data, which showed lower-than-expected US initial jobless claims in the latest week and a milder-than-expected fall in a business index from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve.
GBP/USD
The Cable lost ground towards $1.2398 a three-week low as investors remained cautious about the stagnant UK economy based on soft labor market whilst optimism over US debt ceiling talks raised expectations of higher interest rates by US Federal Reserve.
USD/JPY
The Japanese yen fell steeply to 138.41 after data showed that consumer inflation in the country rose back to a 40-year peak in April.
AUD/USD
The Aussie weakened to $0.6640 and headed for a second straight week of losses as concerns over slowing local economic growth weighed.
USD/CAD
The Loonie edged lower to 1.3496 against the U.S. dollar following Canada Governor Tiff Macklem's speech unwilling to validate rate hike.
USD/ZAR
The rand dipped to 19.50 against the greenback following state utility Eskom's warning on Thursday that it may have to increase scheduled outages to an even higher level.
USD/MUR
The dollar-rupee hopped to 46.05 (Selling).
16.30 CAD Core Retail Sales (MoM)
19.00 USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
23.00 EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks
As expected, the EUR/USD has been on a steep uptrend since September 2022 on hawkish ECB.
Elliott wave pattern
Daily Chart
A Clear impulsive 5-wave structure from a low of $0.9534 to a high of $ 1.1035 in February 2023
Possible Expanding Diagonal in wave c of wave b of a flat correction
Forecast
Short term
We expect a corrective setback in wave C in the coming month
1st target 1.1.0670 Wave a =Wave C of a flat correction
2nd Target 1.0530- Wave a =127.2% of wave C of a flat correction
Long term
Once the pullback is completed, we might see the EUR/USD jumping out of the block to $1.1560, followed by $1.2000 by year-end of 2023
News
The USD/MUR suddenly burst to a new high at 47.48 in March, driven by FX liquidity concerns, before BOM stepped in to smooth the excessive volatility and injected USD 30 mio on the domestic market.
The USD/MUR fell sharply to 45.40 in the wake of three interventions of the Bank of Mauritius from March 2023 to date.
Elliott wave pattern- Weekly Chart
Double zig-zag upward correction in wave W-X-Y, since 2000 completed!
Bearish turn ahead!
Clear 5-wave structure in wave 5 of wave C of wave (Y)
Over the last four years, the USD/MUR surged by 42% from a low of 32.90 in wave 4 to reach an all-time high of 47.47 on 16th of March 2023, before falling back to 45.40 in an impulsive decline from Mid-March to late April 2023
Forecast- USD/MUR on the brink of a downturn in Q2-Q4 of 2023
On the weekly USD/MUR chart, It seems that the pair may have completed a five-wave upward rally in sub-wave (v) of Wave 5 of Wave C of Wave Y with a peak of 47.47 on the 16th of March
Our Short term target is for a downward trend towards 44.00 followed by 43.00 in December 2023
Forecast
EUR/MUR- On the weekly chart, the EUR/MUR may extend its rally in the short term above the high of 51.05 printed in July 2021.
From a technical perspective, on a break of the previous high at 51.05, the pair may find resistance at 52.00, followed by 52.50 by June 2023.
However, we expected the pair to pare some of its gains to 48.50 by September 2023 before a resumption of the uptrend to 53.40-54.50 by December 2023
