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USD
EUR/USD
The Single currency was a tad lower to $1.0832 following Eurozone Consumer Price Index data was unchanged to 7% as expected. Markets remain on the tenterhooks ahead of the European Central Bank, president Lagarde's speech today.
GBP/USD
The Cable showed a lackluster performance at $1.2470 after Bank of England(BOE) Governor Andre Bailey cited on Wednesday that the tightness in the UK labor market is easing at a slower pace than we expected in February.
USD/JPY
The Japanese yen sunk to 137.51 against the greenback following a drop in Japanese imports and exports pointed to more economic headwinds for the country, especially amid slowing demand in its key export markets.
AUD/USD
The Aussie remained under pressure at $0.6646 after as softer-than-expected labor data pointed to lesser economic headroom for the Reserve Bank to keep raising interest rates.
USD/CAD
The Loonie unbothered at 1.3474 against the U.S. dollar ahead of the much-awaiting Canada Core Retail Sales data due tomorrow.
USD/ZAR
The South African rand collapsed to 19.31 versus the greenback after worse-than-expected March retail sales data and the dollar hit a six-week high.
USD/MUR
The dollar-rupee unchanged at 45.95(Selling).
13.00 EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks
13.15 GBP BOE MPC Treasury Committee Hearings
16.30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
16.30 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
18.00 USD Existing Home Sales
As expected, the EUR/USD has been on a steep uptrend since September 2022 on hawkish ECB.
Elliott wave pattern
Daily Chart
A Clear impulsive 5-wave structure from a low of $0.9534 to a high of $ 1.1035 in February 2023
Possible Expanding Diagonal in wave c of wave b of a flat correction
Forecast
Short term
We expect a corrective setback in wave C in the coming month
1st target 1.1.0670 Wave a =Wave C of a flat correction
2nd Target 1.0530- Wave a =127.2% of wave C of a flat correction
Long term
Once the pullback is completed, we might see the EUR/USD jumping out of the block to $1.1560, followed by $1.2000 by year-end of 2023
News
The USD/MUR suddenly burst to a new high at 47.48 in March, driven by FX liquidity concerns, before BOM stepped in to smooth the excessive volatility and injected USD 30 mio on the domestic market.
The USD/MUR fell sharply to 45.40 in the wake of three interventions of the Bank of Mauritius from March 2023 to date.
Elliott wave pattern- Weekly Chart
Double zig-zag upward correction in wave W-X-Y, since 2000 completed!
Bearish turn ahead!
Clear 5-wave structure in wave 5 of wave C of wave (Y)
Over the last four years, the USD/MUR surged by 42% from a low of 32.90 in wave 4 to reach an all-time high of 47.47 on 16th of March 2023, before falling back to 45.40 in an impulsive decline from Mid-March to late April 2023
Forecast- USD/MUR on the brink of a downturn in Q2-Q4 of 2023
On the weekly USD/MUR chart, It seems that the pair may have completed a five-wave upward rally in sub-wave (v) of Wave 5 of Wave C of Wave Y with a peak of 47.47 on the 16th of March
Our Short term target is for a downward trend towards 44.00 followed by 43.00 in December 2023
Forecast
EUR/MUR- On the weekly chart, the EUR/MUR may extend its rally in the short term above the high of 51.05 printed in July 2021.
From a technical perspective, on a break of the previous high at 51.05, the pair may find resistance at 52.00, followed by 52.50 by June 2023.
However, we expected the pair to pare some of its gains to 48.50 by September 2023 before a resumption of the uptrend to 53.40-54.50 by December 2023
