“Trade What’s Happening…Not What You Think Is Gonna Happen.”
USD
EUR/USD
The Shared currency parked at last week low of $1.1047, weighed down by worries about economic damage from war in Ukraine. In addition, Germany said on Sunday that the West would agree to impose more sanctions on Russia in the coming days after Ukraine accused Russian forces of war crimes.
GBP/USD
The Cable declined against a strengthening U.S. dollar as UK manufacturing growth hit a 13-month low.
USD/JPY
The Japanese yen lost ground against the greenback towards 122.65 as improved US Jobless Rate has raised the odds of a 50 bps interest rate hike from the Fed.
AUD/USD
The Aussie dollar surpassed $0.7500 as risk-on impulse has trimmed the appeal of safe-haven assets. RBA’s monetary policy decision and FOMC minutes will remain in the spotlight this week.
USD/CAD
The Loonie remained on the backfoot around 1.2500 as supply shortages across the energy markets eased.
USD/ZAR
South African rand weakened against a stronger dollar on Friday, as accelerating wage growth in the United States weighed on appetite for risky assets.
USD/MUR
The dollar-rupee stayed put at 44.70(selling)
13.05 - GBP- BoE's Governor Bailey speech
After bouncing back from key resistance level 0.6262 from the upside as per our last forecast (see below) , NZDCHF sworn down to 0.6144 but lacked sufficient selling pressure to continue its downtrend.
It appears that final wave Y of W-X-Y correction is quite complex and there might be 2 scenarios popping up in the near term.
Scenario 1 : we could have reached final wave ‘e’ before downtrend resumes. (As per Elliott wave principle a triangle can be formed as final wave C of wave Y of W-X-Y correction)
Key resistance level is wave ‘e’ of barrier triangle of wave C – 0.6259.
