“Amateurs think about how much money they can make. Professionals think about how much money they could lose.”
USD
EUR/USD
The Shared currency fell to $1.0245 after downbeat German Retail sales data and a stable eurozone jobless rate
GBP/USD
The cable edged higher to $1.2235 despite political and economic woes as the market prepares for a larger 50bp rate hike at the next BoE meeting.
USD/JPY
The Japanese yen gained further to 130.65 as US treasury yields remained pressured. However, the expected increase in Japan's minimum wage also underpinned JPY strength.
AUD/USD
The Australian tumbled to $0.6950 as RBA announced a rate hike of 50 bps to 1.85%, in line with expectations. A potential greater instability between US and China may arise if US House speaker Nancy Pelosi visits Taiwan.
USD/ZAR
SoutAfrica's rand strengthened to 16.50 on Monday, bolstered by dollar weakness on bets the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of its interest rates hikes.
USD/MUR
The dollar-rupee remained unchanged at 45.15 (selling).
17:30 - USD - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI(Jul)
Past
EUR like a Deer in the headlights.
Euro has been trending lower over the last couple of months in the range of $1.06 and $1.0350. , unable to process and respond to the wicked combination of higher inflation and recession fears.
Current
Euro has pierced through key support yesterday and sank to $1.0234, its weakest since December 2002
Forecast
A dip to parity or below is in the cards.
1st target @ 0.9906 78.6% fibo retracement
2nd target @ 0.9127 88.6% Fibonacci retracement
Invalidation level @ 0.8221
Past
Double zig-zag upward correction W-X-Y
USD/MUR surged 24% from 37.05 of March 20 to 45.95 as of 6th July 22
Clear 5-wave structure since Feb 2018
Current
BOM shocking intervention higher at 45.30, a boon for U.S dollar against the rupee in the coming days.
Future
Anticipating Wave (v) of 5 of c of (Y) to end near 47.50, 161% Fibonacci projection
Invalidation Level @ 39.25
Past
After reaching a high of 51.05 (buying TT) in July 2021, the EUR/MUR failed to keep the bullish trend seen in 2020 and 2021 undermined by a falling EUR/USD since 2021.
The pair plummeted to a low of 44.61 on 13th of May 2021 before staging a recovery to 47.78 on 30th June 2022.
Future
However, the rebound on the EUR/MUR appeared short-lived as it turned south again this week
The pair could dive in the range of 43.50 and 44.50 in the coming weeks.
Invalidation level @51.05!
