“Trading doesn't just reveal your character, it also builds it if you stay in the game long enough.”
USD
EUR/USD
The Shared currency gained momentum to trade around $1.0213 after falling to a low of $1.0115 on Thursday as U.S. second-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted at a 0.9% annualised rate. Market eyes for GDP data in the eurozone later today.
GBP/USD
The cable remained to the upside at $1.2200 against the greenback as signs of recession have bolstered the US. Market pricing for a 50bp rate increase in the UK next week as inflation might hit two-digit figures.
USD/JPY
The Japanese yen bolstered to 133.10 as Japan’s Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 2.5% in July, and Industrial production impressed to 8.9% MoM growth coupled with a fall in U.S treasury yield.
AUD/USD
The Australian dollar edged higher to $0.7012 despite a downbeat in retail sales to 0.2% versus an expectation of 0.5% MoM in June. Talks between US President Joe Biden and his Chinese Counterpart Xi Jinping also went mostly okay to maintain and deepen lines of communication between them.
USD/ZAR
South African rand strengthened to 16.47 after the fashion retailer reported a 16.3% rise in first-quarter turnover, as consumers coming out of the COVID-19 lockdowns splashed out on items to rejuvenate their wardrobes and homes.
USD/MUR
The dollar-rupee stayed put at 45.15 (selling) this morning.
13:00 - EUR - GDP
16:30 - USD - Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)(Jun)
16:30 - CAD - GDP
Past
EUR like a Deer in the headlights.
Euro has been trending lower over the last couple of months in the range of $1.06 and $1.0350. , unable to process and respond to the wicked combination of higher inflation and recession fears.
Current
Euro has pierced through key support yesterday and sank to $1.0234, its weakest since December 2002
Forecast
A dip to parity or below is in the cards.
1st target @ 0.9906 78.6% fibo retracement
2nd target @ 0.9127 88.6% Fibonacci retracement
Invalidation level @ 0.8221
Past
Double zig-zag upward correction W-X-Y
USD/MUR surged 24% from 37.05 of March 20 to 45.95 as of 6th July 22
Clear 5-wave structure since Feb 2018
Current
BOM shocking intervention higher at 45.30, a boon for U.S dollar against the rupee in the coming days.
Future
Anticipating Wave (v) of 5 of c of (Y) to end near 47.50, 161% Fibonacci projection
Invalidation Level @ 39.25
Past
After reaching a high of 51.05 (buying TT) in July 2021, the EUR/MUR failed to keep the bullish trend seen in 2020 and 2021 undermined by a falling EUR/USD since 2021.
The pair plummeted to a low of 44.61 on 13th of May 2021 before staging a recovery to 47.78 on 30th June 2022.
Future
However, the rebound on the EUR/MUR appeared short-lived as it turned south again this week
The pair could dive in the range of 43.50 and 44.50 in the coming weeks.
Invalidation level @51.05!
