Positivity always wins…Always.
USD
EUR/USD
The Shared currency inched lower to $0.9961 as investors remained worried over the energy supply crisis as Nord Stream 1 pipeline from Russia to Germany is going under unscheduled maintenance and will be shut last three days of August.
GBP/USD
The Cable fell to $1.1804 as Bank of England's policy rate still appears relatively unattractive in real terms and growth concerns remain a heavy weight on the pound.
USD/JPY
The Japanese yen lost ground this morning to 136.90 on expectations that the Fed will stick to its aggressive rate hike strategy as inflation is still above 8% ahead of Federal Reserve Jerome Powell speech at the Jackson Hole later today.
AUD/USD
The Aussie dollar hovered to $0.6960 as stronger commodity pricing and an improvement in risk sentiment together with China injecting 1 trillion Yuan in the Chinese economy support the pair which will help boost Australian export market.
USD/CAD
The Loonie lost ground to 1.2947 on broad dollar strength as markets awaits key US Consumer Index.
USD/ZAR
The South African rand strengthened against the dollar as Statistics South Africa figures showed July producer inflation came in above expectations at 18.0% versus predictions for 17.6%, thus putting additional pressure on South African's central bank to hike rate.
USD/MUR
The dollar-rupee remained unchanged at 44.60 (selling).
16:30 - USD - Core personal Price index
18:00 - USD - Fed's Chair Powell speech
Past
EUR like a Deer in the headlights.
Euro has been trending lower over the last couple of months in the range of $1.06 and $1.0350. , unable to process and respond to the wicked combination of higher inflation and recession fears.
Current
Euro has pierced through key support yesterday and sank to $1.0234, its weakest since December 2002
Forecast
A dip to parity or below is in the cards.
1st target @ 0.9906 78.6% fibo retracement
2nd target @ 0.9127 88.6% Fibonacci retracement
Invalidation level @ 0.8221
Past
Double zig-zag upward correction W-X-Y
USD/MUR surged 24% from 37.05 of March 20 to 45.95 as of 6th July 22
Clear 5-wave structure since Feb 2018
Current
BOM shocking intervention higher at 45.30, a boon for U.S dollar against the rupee in the coming days.
Future
Anticipating Wave (v) of 5 of c of (Y) to end near 47.50, 161% Fibonacci projection
Invalidation Level @ 39.25
Past
After reaching a high of 51.05 (buying TT) in July 2021, the EUR/MUR failed to keep the bullish trend seen in 2020 and 2021 undermined by a falling EUR/USD since 2021.
The pair plummeted to a low of 44.61 on 13th of May 2021 before staging a recovery to 47.78 on 30th June 2022.
Future
However, the rebound on the EUR/MUR appeared short-lived as it turned south again this week
The pair could dive in the range of 43.50 and 44.50 in the coming weeks.
Invalidation level @51.05!
