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Treasury

Daily Market Patrol

Market Patrol 19th August 2022

If you don't find a way to make money while you sleep, you will work until you die

Warren Buffet
Indicative Selling Rates
against MUR
USD
20 Dec 2024
  • AUD
  • 30.10
  • 0.6322
  • BWP
  • 3.54
  • 0.0745
  • CAD
  • 33.29
  • 1.4301
  • CNY
  • 6.72
  • 7.0815
  • DKK
  • 6.71
  • 7.0904
  • EUR
  • 49.58
  • 1.0414
  • HKD
  • 6.22
  • 7.6568
  • INR
  • 0.57
  • 83.7507
  • JPY
  • 31.08
  • 153.1735
  • KES
  • 37.41
  • 127.2757
  • NZD
  • 27.03
  • 0.5677
  • NOK
  • 4.24
  • 11.2216
  • SGD
  • 35.54
  • 1.3396
  • ZAR
  • 2.68
  • 17.7715
  • SEK
  • 4.37
  • 10.8960
  • CHF
  • 53.34
  • 1.1203
  • GBP
  • 59.72
  • 1.2543
  • USD
  • 47.61
  • 1.0000
  • AED
  • 13.26
  • 3.5895
The greenback extended gains after hawkish Fed's officials statement
Fundamental News

EUR/USD
The Shared currency plunged to $1.0074 as Federal Reserve officials testified of the need for further rate hikes, and investors reevaluated Wednesday's minutes from the U.S. central bank's July meeting as being more hawkish than initially thought.

 

GBP/USD
The Cable extended its downfall to $1.1902 with immediate attention shifting to U.K. Retail Sales, with consumer spending likely to show another drop in July.

 

USD/JPY
The Japanese yen faded to 136.25 per U.S. dollar as the Bank of Japan has indicated that it has no plans to roll back ultra-loose monetary policy this year despite rising price pressures.

 

AUD/USD
The Aussie dollar slipped to $0.69 over escalating tensions between the United States and China, as Washington and Taiwan began negotiations over a trade agreement, weighed on the Asian markets.

 

USD/CAD
The Loonie dropped to 1.2961 against the U.S. dollar, although crude oil prices gained positive traction and moved away from a six-month low.

 

USD/ZAR
The South African rand extended the previous day's losses to 16.90, as the dollar bounced on investor uncertainty surrounding the pace of interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve to tame inflation.

 

USD/MUR
The dollar-rupee popped by Rs1 to 46.00(Selling).

Fundamental & Technical Data
Economic Indicators-Local Time

10:00 - GBP - Retail Sales (MoM)(Jul)

16:30 - CAD - Core Retail Sales (MoM)(Jul)

 

Central Bank Interest Rates
Last Change
New Meeting
Federal Bank of U.S
1.75%
04-May-2022
-
European Central Bank
0.00%
10-Mar-2016
-
Bank of England
1.75%
01-Jan-0001
-
Bank of Japan
-0.10%
28-Jan-2016
-
Reserve Bank of Australia
1.35%
01-Jan-0001
-
S.Africa Reserve Bank
5.25%
21-Jul-2022
-
Reserve Bank of India
4.00%
22-May-2020
-
Bank of Mauritius
2.25%
03-Jun-2020
-
Looking for Markets correlation?
Market Correlation is a measure, statistical or observational, that gives a positive or negative link between the pricing of multiple currencies.

Bulls & Bears Levels
Resistance and Support
Levels
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/ZAR
R3
1.0273
1.2190
137.56
17.81
R2
1.0233
1.2135
136.73
17.13
R1
1.0160
1.2033
136.31
16.98
PP
1.0120
1.1979
135.48
15.74
S1
1.0047
1.1876
135.06
15.14
S2
1.0007
1.1821
134.23
14.41
S3
0.9934
1.1719
133.81
13.99
Technical Analysis - Forex Charts
EUR/USD Outlook- looking bleak throughout Q3-Q4 2022
Chart updated on 05.07.2022

Past

EUR like a Deer in the headlights.

Euro has been trending lower over the last couple of months in the range of $1.06 and $1.0350. , unable to process and respond to the wicked combination of higher inflation and recession fears.

Current 

Euro  has pierced through key support yesterday and sank to $1.0234, its weakest since December 2002

Forecast

A dip to parity or below is in the cards.

1st target @ 0.9906  78.6% fibo retracement

2nd target @  0.9127  88.6% Fibonacci retracement

Invalidation level @ 0.8221

USD/MUR Outlook One more leg higher before paring some of its gains in Q3-Q4 2022
Chart posted on 05.07.2022

Past

Double zig-zag  upward correction W-X-Y

USD/MUR surged 24% from 37.05 of March 20 to 45.95 as of 6th  July 22

Clear 5-wave structure since Feb 2018

Current

 BOM shocking intervention higher at 45.30, a boon for U.S dollar against the rupee in the coming days.

 

Future

Anticipating Wave (v) of 5 of c of (Y) to end near 47.50, 161% Fibonacci projection

Invalidation Level @ 39.25

EUR/MUR- Bears in control in Q3-Q4 2022
Chart posted on 05.07.2022

Past

After reaching a high of 51.05 (buying TT) in July 2021, the EUR/MUR failed to keep the bullish trend seen in 2020 and 2021 undermined by a falling EUR/USD since 2021.

The pair plummeted to a low of 44.61 on 13th of May 2021 before staging a recovery to 47.78 on 30th June 2022.

 

Future

However, the rebound on the EUR/MUR appeared short-lived as it turned south again this week

The pair could dive in the range of 43.50 and 44.50 in the coming weeks.

Invalidation level @51.05!

 

Weekly Market Update by Reshma Peerun Rajwani
Speak to our team
  • Allan Juste
    Head - Forex And Derivatives
    +230 5251 4855
  • Reshma Peerun Rajwani
    Head – Treasury Sales
    +230 403 5500
Disclaimer
Please note that the information published is purely indicative. It is based on technical data from sources which the Bank verily believes to be authentic, though its timeliness or accuracy cannot be warranted or guaranteed. AfrAsia Bank Ltd issues no invitation to anyone to rely on this bulletin and neither we nor our information providers shall be in no way whatsoever, liable for any errors or inaccuracies, regardless of cause, or the lack of timeliness, or for any delay or interruption in the transmission thereof to the user. The indicative rates and other market information are subject to changes at the Bank's discretion. Whilst every effort is made to ensure the information is accurate, you should confirm the latest situation with the Bank prior to making any decisions.