Great fortunes are generally made by solving the most obvious problems.
USD
EUR/USD
The single currency rallied from a low of $1.1183 to $1.1262 on upbeat IHS Markit's final euro zone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index that moved closer to the 50 mark separating growth from contraction in June.
GBP/USD
The cable soared to a high of $1.2494, benefitted on the back of US dollar’s sluggish moves and on optimism that at end of the year if Britain and the European Union (EU) thrash out a deal over future trade relations.
USD/JPY
The Japanese Yen spiked to 107.42 against the US dollar despite U.S Data for May was revised upward to show payrolls surging 3.065 million, instead of tumbling 2.76 million as previously estimated.
AUD/USD
The Aussie pierced to $0.6925 on reports from PM Morrison that his country is prepared to 'step up and support' Hong Kong citizens, shaping Australia into a safe haven while walking into UK's footsteps.
USD/ZAR
The South Africa's rand firmed at 17.02 against a weaker dollar, shaking off data revealing the South African economy was already in contraction before the coronavirus lockdown.
USD/MUR
In Mauritius, the dollar-rupee stayed unabated at 40.50(selling).
16:30 - USD - Unemployment rate (Jun)
On the hourly chart, in an Elliott wave perspective, the upward correction that started on 18th of May 2020 to 11th June high of $1.2815 appeared to be a wave B within the April-June 2020 irregular flat decline (a)-(b)-(c) . A flat is a sideways, three-wave corrective pattern labelled A-B-C. Wave A (1.2078-18th May) and Wave B are always corrective waves (3-wave decline), while wave C is always a motive wave (5 wave structure). Actually, Wave C seems to be underway with one or two legs to the downside, completing wave 2, while a bearish contracting Diagonal pattern looming ahead.
Technically, we expect the bearish scenario on the GBP/USD to find its first strong support near $1.2170 printed on 7th April 2020 , as the Wave principle holds that the limit of any market correction tend to register their maximum retracement within the span of travel of previous fourth wave of lesser degree. However, a break below that level could open the door for further decline near $1.1888 (a 61.8% Fibonacci percentage of previous March-April 2020 impulsive rally).
On the other hand, a bullish move on the GBP/USD is expected to meet interim contention around $1.2694 and a breach of this area on a sustainable basis could open the door to a probable visit to the high of $1.2815 printed on 10th of June.
From an Elliott Wave trading standpoint, USD/CHF indicates a violent recoil higher in compelling impulse Wave (3) trajectory on a test of support marked by the confluence of a former counter-trend support at Wave (2) at 0.9372 of June 11th, percolating since late March 2020. As we have continued to highlight, the trend USD/CHF remains bullish overall.
Looking at the hourly chart, the pair may propel into Wave (3) targeting 1.0084, which represents 100% Fibonacci projection of impulsive Wave (1) through corrective Wave (2). Peeking through 0.9553 of Wave (1) would further validate the upside momentum. On the flipside, a set-back of recent low at 0.9418, then 0.9372 would render the count obsolete. If the pair fails to clear the latter, it could catalyse an aggressive decline.
