There is a time to go long, a time to go short and a time to go fishing.
USD
EUR/USD
The single currency managed to hold gains near $1.0850 after worse than expected US inflation figures, the lowest reading since 2015, and ahead of Powell speech at 17:00 amid rising speculation the United States could adopt negative interest rates.
GBP/USD
The cable plummeted to $1.2270 this morning as persistent confusion over government plans to ease lockdown measures, the worse COVID-19 death toll in Europe, and revived Brexit risks all weighed on the pound. Market awaiting today’s slew of UK economic releases including GDP figures.
USD/JPY
The yen extended gains to 107.20 versus the U.S dollar as the US-China trade war and virus outbreak fears loom.
AUD/USD
After recovering to a high of $0.6530 yesterday, the Aussie fell again to $0.6470 today as the trade war with China joins hands with the broad risk-off sentiment.
USD/ZAR
The South African rand firmed at 18.36 per dollar on Tuesday as demand for emerging markets was boosted after China waived tariffs on certain U.S. imports yesterday.
USD/MUR
On the local market, the USD/MUR clawed back gains to 40.30(selling) this morning undermined by Bank of Mauritius’s intervention for three weeks in a row.
10:00 - GBP - GDP (QoQ)(Q1), GDP (YoY)(Q1)
10:00 - GBP - Manufacturing Production (MoM)(Mar)
10:00 - GBP - Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change
16:30 - USD - Crude Oil Inventories
- From an Elliott Wave standpoint, USDCHF could potentially unfold into compelling impulsive Wave C of the zigzag correction of Wave (2) to a narrowing region 0.9550 (50% retracement of Wave (1)) to 0.9395 (100% projection of Wave A through B) in the near term trend, from the downside bias from April 6th high of 0.9797.
- Price could immediately start to shoot back up into Wave (3) on a longer perspective.
- Piercing above the resistance 0.9905 would endorse the structure.
- Alternatively, broader bearish invalidation of Elliott Wave Structure rest at 0.9191 of March 9th low while Relative Strength Index signals a bullish recoil higher for the pair.
• After rallying to the downside from a high of 112.22 to 101.17 amid global pandemic threat, USD/JPY has been in a correcting mode since 9th March 2020 and seemed to have recently completed an W-X-Y Double Zig-Zag structure of Wave (2) reaching a high of 111.64 on 27th March 2020.
• Two strong indicators were flashing a trend reversal: ending diagonal at Wave 5 of Wave c and bearish RSI divergence.
• On the hourly chart, as per Elliott Wave analysis, the pair might resume its downwards trend targeting 100.64 - 93.78 to unfold Wave (3), a projection of 100%-161.8% of Fibonacci level.
• At 107.70 today, USD/JPY is percolating towards its target from 110.41 to 107.84, as per chart.
• On a side note, resumption of a bullish USD/JPY would mark an invalidation of the Elliott Wave structure above 112.22
