Nice-to-have is going to be really hard to sell in a downturn.
USD
EUR/USD
The fiber was hemmed into a narrow range around $1.1220 as traders awaits data on Germany's manufacturing sector, retail sales, and the jobless rate to gauge the health of the eurozone economy.
GBP/USD
Sterling rebounded on Tuesday from early losses at $1.2258 exacerbated by worse than expected UK GDP data, to $1.2360 due to some probable end-of-quarter re-balancing portfolios, unrelated to news and economic development.
USD/JPY
The Japanese Yen escalated from 108.16 to 107.61 against the greenback after Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index for the second quarter rose more than expected in Asian sessions.
AUD/USD
The Aussie surged to $0.6898 buoyed by Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 51.2 last month, the fastest pace of growth since December, and up from May's 50.7. The 50-mark separates growth from contraction on a monthly basis.
USD/ZAR
South Africa's rand fell to 17.36 against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday as data showed the domestic recession deepened in the first quarter of this year, with first-quarter gross domestic product contracted 2% from the previous three months, led by declines in mining and manufacturing.
USD/MUR
The Mauritian rupee stayed put at 40.50(selling) on the local market.
11:55 - EUR - German Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
11:55 - EUR - German Unemployment Change (Jun)
12:30 - GBP - Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
16:15 - USD - ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jun)
18:00 - USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
18:00 - USD - Crude Oil Inventories
22:00 - USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes
On the hourly chart, in an Elliott wave perspective, the upward correction that started on 18th of May 2020 to 11th June high of $1.2815 appeared to be a wave B within the April-June 2020 irregular flat decline (a)-(b)-(c) . A flat is a sideways, three-wave corrective pattern labelled A-B-C. Wave A (1.2078-18th May) and Wave B are always corrective waves (3-wave decline), while wave C is always a motive wave (5 wave structure). Actually, Wave C seems to be underway with one or two legs to the downside, completing wave 2, while a bearish contracting Diagonal pattern looming ahead.
Technically, we expect the bearish scenario on the GBP/USD to find its first strong support near $1.2170 printed on 7th April 2020 , as the Wave principle holds that the limit of any market correction tend to register their maximum retracement within the span of travel of previous fourth wave of lesser degree. However, a break below that level could open the door for further decline near $1.1888 (a 61.8% Fibonacci percentage of previous March-April 2020 impulsive rally).
On the other hand, a bullish move on the GBP/USD is expected to meet interim contention around $1.2694 and a breach of this area on a sustainable basis could open the door to a probable visit to the high of $1.2815 printed on 10th of June.
From an Elliott Wave trading standpoint, USD/CHF indicates a violent recoil higher in compelling impulse Wave (3) trajectory on a test of support marked by the confluence of a former counter-trend support at Wave (2) at 0.9372 of June 11th, percolating since late March 2020. As we have continued to highlight, the trend USD/CHF remains bullish overall.
Looking at the hourly chart, the pair may propel into Wave (3) targeting 1.0084, which represents 100% Fibonacci projection of impulsive Wave (1) through corrective Wave (2). Peeking through 0.9553 of Wave (1) would further validate the upside momentum. On the flipside, a set-back of recent low at 0.9418, then 0.9372 would render the count obsolete. If the pair fails to clear the latter, it could catalyse an aggressive decline.
